Population Projections

Population change affects everyone. Future changes to the population are vital in forward planning, whether for:

• Housing
• Care services
• Transportation
• Schools

Standard population projection methods use past trends into the future. Use of population projections must be treated with caution. Projections can never be 100% accurate.

Population change is the result of a variety of factors. These factors influence:

• births
• deaths
• migration

None can be accurately predicted. They are a guide to what might happen if past trends continue into the future.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) - 2018-Based Subnational Population Projections

National and sub-national population projections produced every two years. These are trend-based.

They make assumptions based on levels observed over a five year period. These assumptions are around future levels of:

• fertility
• mortality
• migration

They show what the future population might look like over the next 25 years. That is if recent trends continue. They take no account of policy or development aims in local authorities.

In March 2020 the ONS released the 2018-Based projections which run from 2018 to 2043.

• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections by 5 Year Age Bands - Female
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections by 5 Year Age Bands - Male
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections by 5 Year Age Bands
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections for Cornwall - Population Pyramids
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections for the Isles of Scilly - Population Pyramids
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections for both Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly by Single Year of Age - Male
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections for both Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly by Single Year of Age
• 2018 Based ONS Population Projections for both Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly by Single Year of Age - Female

POPGROUP – Local Population Projections

ONS projections provide a useful idea of future population. They do not offer any flexibility to adjust or add any further assumptions.

'POPGROUP Demographic Forecasting Software' enables this flexibility.
They are Produced by the University of Manchester. The Local Government Association own them and they are maintained by Edge Analytics.

They were created as an alternative to the ONS projections for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly. They aim to address issues including:

• Restricted by national calculations.
• A considerable variation in projections due to short-term trends.
• No account of local policy.
• Unavailable at geographies smaller than Cornwall level.

Producing local authority population projections allow investigation into the impact of different scenarios:

• Implications of local planning restrictions/developments.
• Decline/growth of the local economy.
• Longer/shorter term trends in birth, death and migration rates.

The reports include:

• population and household projections down to smaller areas
• A combination of trend-based and dwelling-led projections.
• Linked to the Cornwall Local Plan.

Download the Cornwall Population Projections Pyramid.

• 0-19 Population in 2018
• 0-19 Population in 2028
• 0-19 Population in 2038
• 20-64 Population in 2018
• 20-64 Population in 2028
• 20-64 Population in 2038
• 65+ Population in 2018
• 65+ Population in 2028
• 65+ Population in 2038